THE LIQTIDE SCORE: 33/100 — DRY SEASON — 29 OCT 2026
33/100DRY SEASON (▼ was 38) · TREND TURNING UP
The US Treasury pulled $78.9B out of the system in 7 days.
THE BOARD
| US NET LIQUIDITY | $5.81T | +$8.3B 4w |
| FED BALANCE SHEET | $6.75T | +$5.9B 4w |
| TREASURY WAR CHEST (TGA) | $1.05T | +$115.9B 4w |
| ON-RRP BUFFER | $176M | |
| STABLECOIN FLEET | $302.1B | -$3.4B 7d |
| BITCOIN | $80,154 | dominance 59.5% |
| SPOT ETF DESKS (5d NET) | -$486M |
SIGNALS
- GREEN · NETLIQ-RISING — US net liquidity 4-week change positive ($8.3B). Backdrop supportive.
- AMBER · TGA-WARCHEST — Treasury cash pile at $1.05T — above $1T, highest-tier drain pressure.
- AMBER · RRP-EXHAUSTED — ON-RRP buffer nearly spent ($176M). No cushion left for the next drain.
- AMBER · PLUMBING-WATCH — SOFR-IORB spread at 5bp. Watching repo plumbing.
- RED · STABLE-BURN — Stablecoin fleet shrank $3.4B in 7 days. Dry powder leaving the theater.
- AMBER · ETF-OUTFLOW — Spot BTC ETFs bled $486M over 5 sessions.
- RED · DOLLAR-SQUEEZE — Broad dollar in the top decile of its 1-year range. Offshore funding squeeze in effect.
THE READ
Dry season: more money is leaving the financial system than entering it. Risk assets are fighting the current until the flow turns. Trend: turning up.
THE LIQTIDE SCORE™ IS A PROPRIETARY 0–100 COMPOSITE OF GLOBAL LIQUIDITY FLOWS (OPEN METHODOLOGY). DATA: FRED / US TREASURY / NY FED / DEFILLAMA / COINGECKO / STOOQ / FARSIDE. QUOTE FREELY — ATTRIBUTION: LIQTIDE.COM. ANALYTICAL VISUALIZATION OF PUBLIC DATA — NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.